Here are the 4 things I expect will happen in the creator economy in 2025:
• The Supreme Court will uphold a U.S. law that could ban TikTok. After reporting on this story over the past four years and spending a lot of time speaking with legal experts, I expect the court to decide that national security concerns override worries that the ban violates the First Amendment, similar to the appeals court’s ruling. I think the Supreme Court will make a swift decision before the Jan. 19 deadline.
That won’t mean it’s game over for TikTok. President-elect Donald Trump, whose lawyers have asked the Supreme Court to delay its decision, wants to suspend the ban. And after the video app exhausts the legal route, I expect parent company ByteDance will hold discussions with buyers, though it may ultimately decide to shut the app down in the U.S. rather than strike a deal.
I predict Elon Musk will emerge as a suitor and try to buy the company.
• Instagram and YouTube will launch major shopping features to compete with TikTok Shop and take advantage of uncertainty around a ban. Individual creators on TikTok have made entire businesses around earning commissions through products they recommend, and they don’t have a great alternative if TikTok Shop disappears. Though Instagram in 2022 scaled back its shopping initiatives, I think it will revive these efforts in 2025, making it easier for creators to sell and recommend products. YouTube has also signaled shopping is a focus, including by recently expanding a partnership with Shopify.
• Hollywood goes even bigger on creators. Movie studios and streamers will work with more social media creators this year, both by casting them in traditional acting roles and by building new reality TV shows around them. They will also license their content and shows and launch more free, ad-supported streaming channels as they look to boost the amount of content available on their services. We could see deals featuring big stars, such as Alix Earle and Mark Rober.
• Direct investments in creators and their companies will rise. It’s not clear there’s a market for many startups focused on offering tools for creators. I expect more investors, from venture capitalists to private equity firms, to back the part of the creator economy that continues to grow: The influencers themselves, who have historically bootstrapped their companies. Creator-founded companies, particularly beauty brands started by influencers, could be targets for investments and acquisitions.
Plus, I grade last year's predictions and what I got right and wrong. (My prediction that creators would play a key role in the 2024 election was spot on. My prediction that X would rebrand back to Twitter -- not so much.
